Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
